During a late January meeting with the Swiss-Armenian community, Prime minister Nikol Pashinyan questioned the veracity and extent of the 1915 Turkish genocide of Armenians. The video can be seen here.
Pashinyan claimed the 1915 genocide was never on the agenda of Armenians until 1950 or so, hoping his audience would assume the logical fallacy that the catastrophe the Armenians endured was a post-facto creation. Pashinyan said, “We need to understand what happened and why?”
Rather than correct every idiotic and corrosive statement Pashinyan made, it may be best to ask why he makes such statements. Note that these statements parallel those made by the Armenian Genocide-denying Turkish Historical Society.
While some leaders believe they are acting in the best interests of their country, others may prioritize their survival and enrichment. In many cases, the longer a leader stays in power, the harder it becomes to relinquish control: they also become increasingly entrenched and resistant to change.
In 2018 Pashinyan came to power as part of a mild multi-dimension color revolution. The Western NGO-supported movement culminated in the engineered loss in the 2020 Karabakh War and the ethnic cleansing of 120,000 Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh in the fall of 2023. It has been claimed that Ankara and Baku had a hand in the rise of Pashinyan. The Armenian PM reduced the Russian footprint in Southern Caucasus and now feels domestically and geopolitically vulnerable. Pashinyan’s popularity has hit all-time lows of less than 15%. Yet elections next year may result in Pashinyan’s reelection – if there is no external interference – because, unfortunately, since its post-Soviet independence, Armenia has discouraged any leadership class from reaching a critical mass. Pashinyan’s existing opposition is either dried of vitality or controlled.
Pashinyan makes public statements, many of which he knows are false. He now knows he must engage in activities forced upon him by Azerbaijan and Turkey, if he expects to stay in power. Promises made or inferred that relinquishing Nagorno-Karabakh would usher in an era of socio-economic paradise in Armenia have not materialized. During the 2026 elections, there may be a battle between Russian and US/EU influence. Pashinyan may elicit the support of Ankara and Baku, meaning he must increase his anti-Armenian rhetoric and actions to unprecedented levels. Pashinyan is the “beneficiary” of his so-called revolution that generated circumstances beyond his control. Due to a lack of any forethought, Pashinyan has put himself, his supporters, and the rest of Armenia at the mercy of Turkey and Azerbaijan. Neither the US nor the EU will send ground troops to Armenia even if Armenia is under threat of extinction.
If Pashinyan does not remain in power, he will lose his ‘revolutionary guard’ of 30,000 police, with his life and that of his family in potential danger. While extraordinary efforts were made in the post-2020 Karabakh War for his security, deterring many who would have sought revenge for the death of over 5,000 young men in Karabakh’s engineered defeat, the same can’t be said for Pashinyan as a civilian.
David Davidian – Lecturer at the American University of Armenia. He has spent over a decade in technical intelligence analysis at major high-technology firms. He resides in Yerevan, Armenia
